Only one child under 14 by...: Expert's big warning on Japan's demographic trend

Japan’s declining birthrate has reached critical levels, with a leading demographic expert now warning that, if the trend continues, the country could have only one child under the age of 14 by January 5, 2720 -- just 695 years from now.

Professor Hiroshi Yoshida of Tohoku University has developed a real-time population clock to raise awareness about this issue, highlighting the rapid decline in Japan’s child population. The clock calculates the annual rate of decline using official data from the Japanese Statistics Bureau, according to British news outlet The Independent.

The latest calculation by Yoshida has moved this date forward by over a century compared to last year’s estimate, as reported by The Japan Times. The clock tracks the decrease in children each year and estimates when only one child would remain.

In 2023, Japan’s fertility rate hit a record low of 1.20, with Tokyo’s rate falling below one. Fewer marriages and a growing number of single individuals have been identified as key reasons for the decline.

The first half of 2024 recorded only 350,074 births, the lowest since 1969 -- a 5.7 per cent drop compared to the same period in 2023, according to The Independent.

In 2023, births fell 5.1% to 758,631, while marriages dropped 5.9% to 489,281, marking the first time in 90 years that the number of marriages fell below 500,000. Since out-of-wedlock births are rare in Japan, this trend forebodes further population decline.

To combat the issue, Tokyo will introduce a four-day workweek for government employees starting in April 2025, aimed at boosting fertility rates and supporting working mothers.

“Marriage is a decision based on one’s own values, but the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is working to build momentum for marriage so that those who think they ‘intend to get married eventually’ can take that first step,” said the website for a government-run dating app designed to encourage marriage and childbearing, as reported by The Independent.

Despite efforts to expand childcare facilities, provide housing subsidies, and launch innovative programs like the dating app, experts warn that Japan’s population may continue to shrink for decades.

The current demographic structure—with a growing older population—means the country faces a long road to stabilisation even if fertility rates improve.