1 day ago
The market stands on the cusp of concluding a non-inspiring, uneventful week where the Nifty has only been confined to a 300-point range. The bulls have fought tooth and nail through the week to defend the 22,800 mark on the downside, but there is zero conviction to sustain at any level near or above the mark of 23,000.
A similar script played out on Thursday. The usual volatility that comes with a weekly options expiry session was also missing. The gap down did happen but that was bought into. However, post that, the Nifty continued to meander around the flat line, with no meaningful movement in either direction.
In fact, in four out of the last five trading sessions, the index has ended with a final tally of 0.1% or less but has ended in the red in 11 out of the last 12 trading sessions. There is uncertainties of the Trump tariff impact, worries around the auto sector, worries over funds moving out of India into China, all of this is keeping the bulls at bay as there is a lack of positive triggers for the market to move higher.
Even Saion Mukherjee of Nomura in a note on Thursday gave a broad target range for the Nifty for the year-end. He expects the index to be between 21,800, which is another 1,100 points down from Thursday's close, or at 25,700, which is a 12% upside. You can read more on that here.
A rally that has fizzled out extremely quickly has been the rally in FMCG stocks post the income tax related announcements during the Union Budget on February 1. The FMCG index ended lower for the 14th day running, its longest losing streak on record. The losing streak has resulted in stocks losing up to ₹3 lakh crore in market capitalisation.
The only solace for the last two trading sessions has been the recovery in the broader markets after the steep sell-off. Both the Midcap and Smallcap index outperformed the benchmark indices on Thursday, as has been the case for most of this week.
For the week, the Nifty is absolutely flat, while the Nifty Midcap index is up 3% and the Smallcap index is up 2% so far. Both the broader market indices are poised for the best week since the start of December last year.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said that the Nifty remains rangebound with support at 22,800 and 23,150 acting as a barrier. A decisive breakout on either side may result in a directional move.
Angel One's Osho Krishnan believes that 23,000 is a significant resistance for the index and there needs to be sustained buying to overcome that level post which, there are multiple resistance levels between 23,200 - 23,400. He advises a cautiously bullish stance until the Nifty breaks out of the falling wedge pattern's upper range.
A sustained move above the initial hurdle of 23,100 could confirm a short-term bottom reversal for the Nifty and take the index further higher, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He also expects an upside bounce over the next one to two sessions.
Nifty Bank's rally on Wednesday was a short-lived one as the index gave up half of what it had gained in the previous session. The underperformance of the Nifty Bank is also a bigger reason as to why the Nifty remained confined to a narrow range on Thursday. However, the index remains 0.5% higher for the week so far, an outperformance when compared to the Nifty and is also poised to gain in its third out of the last four weeks.
Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank needs to cross 50,000 for a further upmove but that level has aggressive call writing and technical challenges. He advises a buy-on-dips strategy with resistance at 50,000 and a key support at 48,600 levels.
Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates' Hrishikesh Yedve believes that a sustained move above 49,650 can take the index back to levels of 50,000 and 48,800 on the downside will act as a strong support for the index.
