8 hours ago
By the close of Friday's trade, the bulls would have patted themselves on the back for relentlessly defending the 22,750 - 22,800 zone on the Nifty for at least the last eight trading sessions. That resolve and determination is likely to be put through a gruelling test on Monday, particularly after the sell-off that was witnessed on Wall Street last Friday.
The bigger question through the week, which had the Nifty stuck in a range, was the recovery in the broader markets. The Midcap and Smallcap index, which saw a two-day bounce, prompted a question as to whether that is the start of a sustained recovery or whether that bounce will be used by participants to reduce their existing positions. That was answered on Friday as both the indices fell prey to the selling pressure. However, both managed to end with some gains for the week.
At least until last week, there was a point that the global markets are outperforming but India was an underperformer. But with the fall seen on Thursday and Friday in the US, that too has added to the list of negatives for the market.
There is no positive trigger that comes to mind. The consumption rally post the income tax announcements in the Union Budget earlier this month has already fizzled out. The RBI rate cut, liquidity injections by the central bank, all appear to be priced in, but the concerns don't seem so.
Tesla's potential entry into India has pressured the country's Passenger Vehicle manufacturers, with M&M's fall over the last two weeks being a case-in-point, although brokerages like CLSA do not see a significant impact due to this. With the sentimental impact of the income tax announcements being factored in, the focus is back on rural demand or the lack of it, particularly in urban areas.
Add to that is the inclusion of two stocks - Jio Financial and Zomato into the Nifty 50, which analysts believe will again inflate the price-to-earnings ratio of the index, which was nearing levels when it generally forms a bottom. On the flip side, BPCL and Britannia will be excluded from the Nifty 50 from March.
We are heading into the February series expiry at the start of this truncated week and it has been yet another forgettable series for the Nifty, which is down 450 points so far. This will be the fifth consecutive negative series for the Nifty, taking the fall over the last five series to nearly 3,500 points.
What seemed like a brief stoppage in the selling of foreign institutions in the Indian equities, resumed again on Friday with a significant figure. Domestic institutions were buyers yet again.
The underlying Nifty trend remains choppy, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. A decisive downside breakout of 22,700 can result in the Nifty falling towards levels of 22,450, which is the 20-Month Exponential Moving Average. Immediate reversal hurdle should be between 23,000 - 23,100 levels, he added.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said that a correction towards 22,500 is possible in the short-term on the Nifty with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering a bearish crossover and the index giving a bearish flag pattern breakdown on the hourly charts. On the upside, 22,850 remains a strong resistance, he added.
Kotak Securities' Amol Athawale believes that the correction wave on the Nifty may continue in case it slips below the 22,720 mark on a sustained basis, which happens to be Friday's intraday low. In such a scenario, the index may fall to 22,500 - 22,400 levels. He advises taking a contra long at 22,400 levels with a strict stop loss of 22,320.
The Nifty Bank appears to have taken a backseat amidst the moves in the broader markets and the focus on the Nifty holding on to that 22,800 mark. However, the index gave up all that it gained on Wednesday over Thursday and Friday and also closed below the 49,000 mark for the first time after January 28. The index also ended in the red for the week gone by.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the 20-EMA at 49,500 is a crucial resistance for the Nifty Bank, which will restrict any potential upside move for the index. On the flip side, in case it breaks below the 48,500 mark, it could trigger gap filling, extending the fall to levels of 48,300 - 48,320. He expects some more consolidation on the index before a decisive upward move.
The Nifty Bank has formed a red candle on the daily chart but a small green candle on the weekly, indicating indecisiveness. The Nifty Bank range is seen between 48,500 - 49,650 level and only break on either side can lead to a next directional move, said Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Short covering was seen in these names on Friday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| JSW Energy | 5.41% | -32.92% |
| PB Fintech | 3.32% | -26.49% |
| L&T Tech | 4.09% | -24.78% |
| NALCO | 3.38% | -24.24% |
| Hindalco | 2.07% | -23.78% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Zydus Life | -1.80% | -19.75% |
| Torrent Pharma | -1.99% | -19.56% |
| Adani Ports | -2.50% | -19.56% |
| BHEL | -2.18% | -19.42% |
| Indus Towers | -2.04% | -18.79% |
These are the stocks to watch ahead of Monday's trading session:
Jio Financial Services, Zomato: To be included in the Nifty 50 index from March 25.
BPCL, Britannia: To be excluded from the Nifty 50 index from March 25.
Bharti Airtel: To increase its shareholding in Arm Airtel Africa Plc by up to 5% via Airtel Africa Mauritius.
Vedanta: Declared preferred bidder for Madhya Pradesh's Kauhari Diamond Block, which is at G4 level of exploration with total area of 643.4169 hectares.
Bajaj Housing Finance, BSE, CDSL: These among other stocks including NALCO, Premier Energies to be included in the FTSE India index.
Paisalo Digital: Withdraws proposed issue of 3.37 crore convertible equity warrants due to market volatility and significant decline in the share price of the company. The stock is down 60% from its peak of ₹99.6.
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: Approves sale of NPAs and written-off loans to an Asset Reconstruction Company. To sell micro banking pool size of ₹364.51 crore. It carries an overall provision of 66.51% on the above pool
RVNL: Lowest bidder for a South Western Railway project worth ₹156.35 crore.
Lupin: USFDA issues an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) for the manufacturing facility in Somerset, New Jersey, which was inspected between January 27-31, 2025.
Adani Green Energy: Arm operationalises Solar Power project of 250 MW at Bimsar & Dwada at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan.
Niva Bupa: Received communication from an anonymous sender claiming to have customer data of the company. Continue to conduct investigations of data leak and implementing measures to mitigate it.
Ami Organics: To split one share of ₹10 each into two shares of ₹5 each.
Brigade Enterprises: To invest ₹1,500 crore in Kerala over the next five years.
