Trade Setup for Mar 24: Nifty bulls await short-covering bounce after Trump's ceasefire remarks

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After a one-day pause, the Nifty 50 index decisively resumed its downtrend, plunging over 600 points, or 2.60%, to close at 22,512, its lowest level since April 9, 2025. Attempts at a bounce failed to sustain, with the index eventually closing near the day's lows.

In the first trading session of the week, the index opened about 300 points lower and extended losses through the session. It has now corrected nearly 15% from its all-time high of 26,373 and is inching closer to its 52-week low of 21,743.

HCL Technologies, Power Grid, and ONGC were the only gainers on the Nifty 50, while Titan, Shriram Finance, and Trent led the losses.

All sectoral indices ended in the red, dragged down by sharp declines in consumer durables, metals, realty, financial services, and PSU banks.

Broader markets bore the brunt of the sell-off, with the Nifty Midcap 100 falling 3.90% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 declining 3.94%.

The rupee hit a record low of 93.9750, weighed down by fears of an escalating Middle East conflict, which intensified the sell-off in Indian assets.

Market chatter around liquidity needs in certain Gulf economies may have further added to the pressure.

Market outlook for Tuesday

Going ahead, markets appear to be entering a phase of heightened stress, with sentiment increasingly driven by geopolitical developments and energy price volatility.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said market conditions are likely to remain fragile, with elevated volatility and downside risks in the near term.

Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities noted that the Nifty remains firmly in the grip of bears, with every intraday recovery being sold into, especially after breaching the key support level of 22,930.

He added that the near-term support is now seen at 22,400, and a break below this could drag the index towards its 52-week low of 21,743. On the upside, resistance has shifted lower to the 22,850-22,900 band.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said the 22,650–22,680 zone will act as an immediate hurdle. As long as the index trades below 22,680, the bearish bias is likely to persist, with downside potential towards 22,350, followed by 22,200 in the short term.

A decisive move above 22,680 could trigger a recovery towards 22,850, though such a move may remain corrective unless sustained.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the underlying trend remains weak. The Nifty is currently placed near a key support of 22,500, which coincides with the previous upside gap of April 11, 2025.

A break below this level could drag the index towards the 22,000-21,800 zone in the near term. Immediate resistance is now seen at 22,700-22,800 levels.

GIFT Nifty jumps after Trump's post on Truth Social

Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty, which is an early indicator of how markets are likely to move in the upcoming session on Tuesday, jumped after Trump's remarks, which came after market closing hours in India.

The GIFT Nifty is up over 650 points after the US President's post on Truth Social.

Donald Trump has announced that negotiations with Iran, held over the last two sessions, have resulted in him instructing the Department of War to postpone all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure over a five-day period.

Trump's post on Truth Social has sparked a sharp reversal among risk-on assets and a sharp drop in crude oil prices, which had surged to multi-year highs.

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