US Presidential Elections 2024: What Are The Current Swing States, How Have They Become Important?

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With about 240 million voters eligible in the US Presidential Election in November, only the “swing states”, which are relatively smaller in number, would possibly decide who becomes the next president.

The seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – would decide who sits in the White House between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

Most states in the US have consistently voted for either the Republicans or the Democrats between 2000 and 2016, that is, 38 states voted for the same party. But swing states are always difficult to predict.

Thus, campaign strategies of political parties usually pander to these undecided voters or swing states in order to sway the voters and win coveted Electoral College votes.

What is a Swing State?

Although there is no universal definition of a swing state, but it has four distinct characteristics. First, the state is a battleground. Most Presidential candidates campaign visit these places to canvass for votes between Memorial Day and Labour Day.

Second characteristic is that is a competitive state. Usually, it has small vote margins (less than 5%) for the winning presidential candidate and that different political parties win over time. The 2000 presidential election between George W Bush and Democrat Al Gore came down to a difference of just 537 votes in one swing state, Florida.

Third is the bellwether state. It means the candidate has won from this state to win the presidency in the past. The voters have fair knowledge to predict who will end up in the White House.

Fourth factor is unpredictability or flippability. These states choose different parties in each presidential election. For instance, Pennsylvania chose Barack Obama (Democrat) in 2012, Donald Trump (Republican) in 2016 and Joe Biden (Democrat) in 2020.

According to some experts suggest that this presidential election will not only hinge on swing states but also swing counties. David Schultz, a professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University and editor of Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, estimates that 5% of the voters in five counties in five states could determine the outcome of this year’s contest, as quoted by NPR.

Which States Have Traditionally Been Swing States?

Since 1992, every presidential election has had at least a few states switch party affiliations. The 1992 election had the highest number of states that switched political parties. About 22 states flipped from the previous election over political realignment, as Bill Clinton’s defeat of George HW Bush turned many states that historically voted Republican (including California, Colorado, Maryland, among others) into states that reliably voted for Democrats for the next decade.

In the last eight presidential elections, 26 states were won by less than a three-point margin in at least one election. This includes Florida and Nevada, which had tight margins in five of the last eight elections.

New Mexico and Iowa were also swing states between 2000 and 2004. Arizona and Georgia have been in and out of the swing state cycle over the past two decades, as per US Facts.

What Makes Some States Swing?

There are several factors, which transform a state into a swing state. Increased political polarization, jobs, retirement and immigration can cause a change in demographics.

Experts also noted that social causes drive the political conversations in swing states. For example, North Carolina’s transgender bathroom bill in 2016 and Georgia’s abortion law in 2019.

Several studies have even suggested that politically crucial swing states may get some additional federal resources, as per NPR. “Even though the concept of ‘one person one vote’ is supposed to apply when it comes to presidential elections, ‘one person one vote’ does not mean equal influence,” Schultz said, quoted by NPR. “Some votes effectively matter more than others.”

Which State Has Voted for One Political Party?

Washington DC and 20 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election since 1988. Out of these 20 states, only Minnesota in 2016 and 2000, Oregon in 2000, and Washington in 1988 have ever had close elections.

As per US Facts, seven states and Washington, DC have consistently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988, and 13 states have consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate.