US visas for Indian students shrinking, but don't blame Trump yet

A sharp decline in the issuance of student visas by the US may seem like a Donald Trump effect, but numbers tell a different story. The number of student visas approved for Indians has seen a marked decrease, which conforms to the overall reduction in education visas issued by the American government. Trump or no Trump, the dream of studying in the US universities and colleges is becoming increasingly elusive for Indian students.

While the election of President Donald Trump to the White House sparked speculation about further immigration crackdowns, data suggest that the decline in F-1 student visa approvals began much before his inauguration in January.

Although the number of student visas approved for Indians increased from around 42,000 in the financial year 2018 to 86,000 in the financial year 2024, this figure pales in comparison to the 1.31 lakh education visas approved in 2023 and 1.15 lakh in 2022, according to the US Department of State data.

The F-1 visa programme allows international students to study at an accredited college, university, or other academic institution in the US. It's a non-immigrant visa, meaning it allows temporary stay for the purpose of education.

F-1 visas, which account for over 90% of foreign student approvals, differ from M-1 visas, which are designated for international students pursuing vocational or non-academic programmes at institutions such as community colleges, vocational schools, and business schools.

The application of student visas, specifically in the US, which has been increasing since the massive dip in 2020 due to Covid lockdown, also saw a decline between 2023 and 2024.

Meanwhile, according to a Keystone Education Group survey from November 2024, Trump’s policies and political ideologies made the US a less appealing destination for foreign students. It noted that 42% of students from various countries were then unlikely to consider studying in the US.

US STUDENT VISAS DIP ACROSS COUNTRIES IN LAST 10 YEARS

The F-1 visa approvals have seen a significant decline over the years.

In the fiscal year 2014, there were 5.95 lakh approvals and 1.73 lakh refusals for the F-1 visa globally. By 2023, approvals had dropped to 4.45 lakh, while refusals rose to 2.53 lakh, according to US Department of State data.

There has been a sharp 41% decadal decline in F-1 visa approvals between 2014 and 2024 for international students, according to an analysis by The Indian Express.

The trend continued into the fiscal year 2023-24, with a total of 6.79 lakh applications by international students for F-1 visas. Of these, 2.79 lakh (41%) were rejected, and only 4 lakh were approved, according to the analysis of the data by the US Department of State.

The US government's fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30.

In the fiscal year 2014, the F-1 visa approval rate was 77.48%, but by 2023-24, it had dropped to approximately 58.9%, marking a sharp decline of 18.58 percentage points.

While there is no country-wise data for F-1 visa approvals and denials, media reports from December 2024 showed a 38% decline in F-1 student visas for Indian nationals in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

LESSER VISAS FOR INDIAN STUDENTS IN THE US

In 2024, for the first time since 2009, India surpassed China to become the leading source country of international students to the United States, according to The Open Doors Report for 2023-24, published by the Institute of Education (IIE).

However, despite achieving the milestone, F-1 visa rejection rates for Indian students had already begun rising in 2023, months before Donald Trump’s election as US president.

Between the fiscal years 2018 and 2023, the F-1 visa approval rate for Indian students declined from 65.03% to 63.74%, while the rejection rate increased from 34.97% to 36.26%.

The decline in F-1 visa approvals for Indian students is also evident in the comparative data since the completion of the fiscal year 2023 on September 30, 2023, with figures from October 2023 to January 2024 showing a drop compared to the same period in the preceding financial year.

Since the start of FY 2025, F-1 visa approvals for Indian students have been recorded as 581 in October 2024, 4,511 in November 2024, 7,630 in December 2024, and 1,167 in January 2025.

The total of F-1 student visas approved in the first four months of FY 2025 is lower than the corresponding period of FY 2024.

Since Trump’s return to office in January, his administration has signalled a tougher stance on immigration, raising fears of more restrictions. However, the decline in F-1 student visa approvals is not a result of Donald Trump's return to the White House or his policies. The US, under former President Biden, had already started reducing the number of F-1 visas being granted to international students, and the pinch was being felt by Indians.