Why Israel might allow Iron Dome to miss some missiles

There are tough choices that are made in a war. In France, in the middle of the Battle of Trafalgar, Napoleon was told that his camp had limited medical resources. He then decided to only spend it on people who had a fair chance of survival. The others were left to die. To an onlooker, this might look harsh, but it is the gruesome reality of war. Even in the war on Covid, doctors in several countries had to make the cruel choice of saving some patients while letting others die due to lack of medical supplies.

Israel might have to make similar choices in its ongoing war with Iran and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. This is because it is short of $2 million worth of Arrow 3 missiles which intercept ballistic missiles. This might lead Israel to choosing which areas it would protect over others, say experts. The Arrow 3 is part of Israel's air-defence system, which consists of the famed Iron Dome.

While the Arrow 3 is used to intercept ballistic missiles, like the ones used by Iran, the Iron Dome shoots down rockets fired from a shorter range.

Each enemy rocket shot down with missiles adds to the cost of war, which Israel has been waging since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas terrorists.

Hezbollah rockets could stretch the Iron Dome to its limits, an expert had warned as early as June, when the tensions weren't as high as they are today.

ISRAEL'S 'MUNITIONS ISSUE' AMID WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH, HAMAS

"Israel's munitions issue is serious," Dana Stroul, a former senior US defence official who worked in the Middle East, told British daily The Financial Times.

This shortage has come up at a time when Israel has been gearing up its defences to protect itself from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts, reported the Financial Times.

Rockets and drones have been at a rapid pace into Israel since October 7, 2023. Hezbollah is said to have fired over 8,000 rockets into Israel in the last one year. On October 13, a Hezbollah drone attack killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base in the middle of the country.

Overall, 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel in the past one year from Gaza and Lebanon, according to Israeli figures.

Analysts say that defence chiefs and Israel's air defences might have to choose which areas to guard over others.

“During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv,” Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence, told the Financial Times. “It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed.”

If its arsenal of interceptors gets stretched, Israel might be forced to choose which inhabited areas it wants to shield and which it doesn't.

"It's only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed," Eilam told the FT.

Israel's Iron Dome has shielded it very well from the volley of projectiles that have come thick and fast since October 7 last year. But it has its limits too.

Zvika Haimovich, a retired brigadier general who oversaw Israel's air defenses from 2015 to 2018, told the NPR that Israel had been "expending missiles faster than they can be manufactured".

"After eight months of thousands of interceptions, it's a big challenge," Haimovich said in June.

The Iron Dome uses Tamir missiles. Each Tamir missile costs about $50,000, and, generally, two missiles are shot at each incoming target. Though they are cheaper than other multimillion-dollar missiles, each Tamir shot at a target adds to the war bill.

US TRYING ITS BEST TO HELP ISRAEL IN ITS WAR

But the US is trying its best to help Israel.

The US is attempting to close gaps in Israel's security apparatus. On October 13, it even announced the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) anti-missile battery.

“If Iran responds to an Israeli attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel's air defences will be stretched,” Dana Stroul told the Financial Times.

That even the US does not have limitless stockpiles was also addressed by her.

“The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point," she added.

Israel has been fighting Iran and its proxies for a year now. Its resources, including manpower is overspent.

ISRAEL WORKING DAY AND NIGHT TO MEET WAR OBLIGATIONS

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a company owned by the state of Israel which makes Arrow interceptors used to thwart ballistic missiles, said he was looking after triple shifts to keep production going.

“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy told the Financial Times.

He also added that the time required to make these interceptor missiles was not a matter of days.

“It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks," he added.

Israel's three-layered defence system has shot down several drones and missiles fired by Hezbollah and Hamas.

The country's Iron Dome system defends it against short-range rockets and drones fired by Hamas from Gaza, while David's Sling detects heavier rockets fired from Lebanon and the Arrow system blocks ballistic missiles from Iran.

Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iraqi militias have also fired drones, rockets and missiles at Israel.

No anti-missile or air-defence system is foolproof. Neither it is limitless. That's true for Arrow 3 and the Iron Dome as well.

"Air defense buys time — buys decision-makers time to end the conflict by other means," Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and Studies, told the NPR.

Amid a war on multiple fronts that's taking a toll, Israel's decision-makers will have to take a call soon.

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