Will Soybean Prices Shape Maharashtra Polls? A Lesson From 'Onion Politics'

Last Updated:November 17, 2024, 13:39 IST

Falling market rates and operational challenges for soybean, extensively cultivated in the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, may influence electoral outcomes in more than 70 assembly constituencies

Soybean farming gained prominence in Maharashtra as an alternative to cotton. (Image: AP/File)

In Maharashtra, there has been a significant shift in focus towards soybean prices and the distress faced by those farming the crop, becoming the central theme in the campaigning for the assembly election on November 20. Much like how onion prices disrupted the Lok Sabha elections.

This time, soybean prices are poised to influence electoral outcomes in more than 70 constituencies. Falling market rates and operational challenges for the crop, extensively cultivated in the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, have added a new dimension to the state’s political landscape.

Soybean farming gained prominence in the state as an alternative to cotton, which often proved unreliable due to fluctuating prices and pest attacks. Today, Marathwada has emerged as the soybean hub, with over 30 lakh hectares of farmland dedicated to its cultivation. Vidarbha, another significant agricultural belt, has also reported a bumper harvest this season.

Despite the high yield, farmers are facing severe challenges due to plummeting market prices. The minimum support price (MSP) for soybean is set at Rs 4,800 per quintal, but the delay in opening government procurement centres has forced farmers to sell their produce at much lower rates in the open market.

Soybean pricing is not just a state issue, but is influenced by global markets and national policies. To protect domestic farmers, the central government recently increased import duties on edible oil resulting in a Rs 45 per litre hike in cooking oil prices.

This move, however, has done little to benefit soybean farmers for whom crop prices remain stagnant. Further complicating matters, the government has permitted ethanol production from maize and rice, leading to the production of 60 lakh MT of de-oiled cake (DOC), with maize and rice cakes priced at Rs 14 and Rs 22 per kg. While soybean DOC commands a higher price of Rs 42 per kg, these dynamics have failed to translate into better returns for farmers.

The main issue is the delay in opening procurement centres. Even Pasha Patel, chairman of the Agricultural Prices Commission, has expressed frustration over lack of operational centres, urging the state government to act swiftly.

WHAT IS THE POLITICS AROUND SOYBEAN PRICES?

Opposition parties have seized the moment to corner the ruling alliance. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has consistently raised the soybean pricing issue during his rallies, promising an MSP of Rs 6,000 for the crop if the Maha Vikas Aghadi comes to power. He has promised that the new government will provide stable prices and ensure farmers get their dues.

The ruling Mahayuti, meanwhile, has tried to mitigate the crisis by announcing a marginal Rs 400 hike after increasing import duties on edible oil. Yet, the current market price is still Rs 490 short of the MSP, leaving many farmers dissatisfied.

The political stakes are especially high in Marathwada and Vidarbha, which are heavily reliant on soybean farming. Districts like Latur, Osmanabad, Jalna, Beed, Parbhani and Aurangabad in Marathwada, along with Nagpur, Yavatmal, Chandrapur, Washim, Wardha and Buldhana in Vidarbha, could see their electoral outcomes swayed by farmer sentiment.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the issue during a rally in Marathwada, promising measures to stabilise soybean prices. But, the timing of these announcements has drawn skepticism. Farmers, who have already sold their produce at lower rates, remain unconvinced about long-term solutions.

WHAT DO SOYBEAN PRICES HAVE TO DO WITH ELECTORAL OUTCOMES?

Just as onion prices reshaped the political narrative in the previous elections, soybean could be kingmaker in the assembly polls. Agriculture, which plays a critical role in Maharashtra’s economy, often affects major electoral outcomes especially if linked to discontent in the farming community.

The dissatisfaction among soybean farmers is palpable. With the MSP still out of reach and procurement centres yet to be fully operational, more than 70 constituencies in soybean-dominated regions could witness a backlash against the current regime.

The polls will not only be a test of leadership but also an evaluation of how effectively the state addresses agricultural grievances. Both the ruling coalition and the opposition are aware that soybean prices could become the deciding factor in a number of constituencies.

The opposition is banking on the frustration of farmers to consolidate votes. The state government is working to pacify the anger by promising stable prices and better policies in future. Hence, the election result will not only decide the fate of political parties but also the future of Maharashtra’s agrarian economy.

News elections Will Soybean Prices Shape Maharashtra Polls? A Lesson From 'Onion Politics'