Assembly Election Results Announced: How Accurate Were Exit Polls For Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir?

Voters stand in queue as polling began for 90 Assembly seats of Haryana on October 5 | Image/PTI (File)

The exit polls, which provide an indication of how people voted in an election based on interviews with voters immediately after they leave the polling stations, were released on October 5, after the voting concluded for Haryana assembly polls.

The much-awaited results of Legislative Assembly elections for Haryana and Jammu Kashmir were announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) getting a thumping majority in Haryana, while, Conference (NC)-Congress Alliance got the throne of the erstwhile state.

These results, yet once again contradicted the exit polls which predicted a decisive win for the Congress in Haryana, and a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. This is another setback for companies declaring these exit polls after the Lok Sabha 2024 election debacle.

The exit polls, which provide an indication of how people voted in an election based on interviews with voters immediately after they leave the polling stations, were released on October 5, after the voting concluded for Haryana assembly polls.

Here is a comparison of the exit poll projections and the official results:

2024 Assembly Elections

Exit polls for Haryana

The Haryana exit polls predicted that the Congress would trounce the ruling BJP in Haryana, and was tipped to win close to 60 seats in the 90-seat Assembly where the majority mark is 46.

The Axis My India exit polls predicted a clear majority for Congress, estimating 53-65 seats in the 90-member assembly. The BJP was projected to win between 18-28 seats, while the INLD-BSP alliance was anticipated to secure 1-5 seats. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was predicted to fare poorly. In contrast, the Republic TV-Matrize poll suggested Congress might attain 55-62 seats, with the BJP expected to win 18-24. Dainik Bhaskar’s survey estimated Congress would capture 44-54 seats, the BJP 15-29, and others 4-9.

Official Results

However, BJP registered a thumping victory by bagging 48 seats. After a dramatic turnaround, the BJP crossed the halfway mark, leaving the Congress behind which was leading in the initial trends. The Grand Old Party settled for 37 seats in a major setback.

Exit Polls for Jammu- Kashmir

The Jammu and Kashmir exit polls predicted a hung assembly, with the Conference-Congress Alliance winning 35 to 50 seats. BJP and PDP were projected to secure between 20 to 32 seats and 4 to 12 seats, respectively. Others were expected to bag 4 to 16 seats.

According to the Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll, the Conference-Congress alliance could win 35-40 seats. The BJP may end up with an impressive 20-25 seats. With 12-16 seats, independent candidates may surpass the PDP, which may get 4-7 seats. The Gulistan exit poll predicts a much closer contest, with 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress combine and a stunning 28-30 for the BJP. It also indicates a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.

Official Results

However, The Conference and Congress alliance registered a comfortable majority in the Union Territory, after counting was held for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024. While the Jammu and Kashmir Conference won 42, its ally, the Congress party bagged six seats. The BJP, meanwhile, won 29, with majority of its gains from the Jammu region.

This election established the first elected government in the UT since 2019 when Article 370 was abrogated.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024

Many exit polls had predicted a landslide win for the ruling BJP-led Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. It was predicted that NDA will win 380-400 seats. INDI alliance was to get somewhere around 150 seats. However, the results came as a shocker.

The BJP-led NDA could only manage to win 293 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The Indi alliance performed way better than the expectations. ‘INDIA’ together managed to bag 234 Lok Sabha seats in the elections.