Focus On Welfare, Women And EBCs: NDA’s Bihar Sweep Sets The Tone For UP 2027

Last Updated:November 15, 2025, 13:09 IST

As Bihar delivers a stunning verdict in favour of NDA, political parties in UP begin recalibrating their strategies around women voters, EBC mobilisation, and welfare politics.

UP is set to go to polls in 2027. (Representational Image: PTI)

The NDA’s emphatic victory in Bihar — powered by record turnout, a women-heavy voter surge, and the consolidation of Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) — has sent a clear signal to neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. With the 2027 Assembly election inching closer, parties across UP are scrambling to decode the Bihar template and assess how much of it could repeat on their turf.

Bihar registered its highest-ever turnout of 66.9 per cent, and the NDA swept past the halfway mark with ease. The most critical element of this victory: the decisive shift of EBCs and Mahadalit voters, along with an unprecedented rise in women’s turnout, driven largely by welfare schemes and targeted delivery. For UP, where caste compositions, migration patterns, and socio-economic realities overlap significantly with Bihar, these results carry unmistakable implications.

What Bihar Means for UP

Within hours of the Bihar verdict, both the BJP and Samajwadi Party (SP) convened internal assessments in Lucknow. BJP leaders celebrated what they called “proof of the beneficiary model’s dominance." For the SP, the results prompted a sober reflection on whether traditional identity politics can withstand a welfare-heavy, women-led electoral shift.

A BJP strategist from the UP unit summed up the mood, stating that “Bihar confirms that EBCs plus women plus welfare is the winning formula. We will take the same model deep into UP."

The SP, which has relied heavily on its Yadav–Muslim core, now faces pressure to rethink its social coalition. The EBC bloc — nearly 30 per cent in key UP regions — is at the heart of the Bihar verdict, and its drift could pose the biggest challenge to Akhilesh Yadav in 2027.

‘UP Cannot Ignore Bihar’s Signals’

Speaking to this correspondent, Dr Shashikant Pandey, Head, Department of Political Science, Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said the Bihar result will “reshape strategic thinking" in Uttar Pradesh. “Bihar shows that welfare and women voters have become decisive forces. If UP parties do not adapt to this shift, especially in Purvanchal, they risk repeating the Bihar outcome," Pandey told News18.

According to him, the SP must urgently widen its outreach. “Relying on Yadav–Muslim consolidation is no longer sufficient. The EBCs and small OBC sub-groups will decide the next election in UP, and Bihar has made this clear."

He said the key lessons for UP Parties is largely the surge of women voters in Bihar, who seemed to have been the most defining feature of the election. “In UP, where female turnout has been rising since 2017, all parties — especially the SP — will need explicit, targeted messaging built around safety, financial support, and welfare access," he said.

Secondly, the NDA’s sweep in Bihar owes much to community-specific outreach. In UP, sub-groups like Rajbhars, Nonias, Kumhars, Mallahs, and Lohars could swing dozens of seats if courted strategically.

And thirdly Bihar’s verdict reinforces a trend visible since 2019: direct-benefit schemes are now political capital. “Parties in UP can no longer rely solely on caste mobilisation; they must link narratives to tangible benefits," he added.

He said NDA’s emphatic victory in Bihar has also posed a major challenge for SP, the party now faces the task of expanding beyond its core base and building a broader welfare-oriented narrative. Insiders say the party is examining: Women-focused policy promises, UP-wide EBC engagement campaigns, strengthening its organisation in eastern UP, where caste patterns mirror Bihar’s.

However, SP leaders also point out that UP differs from Bihar in one key way — a far larger Muslim electorate, which gives the Opposition a more consolidated base than Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan enjoyed.

He also said that BJP is also expected to get strategic advantage after Bihar’s victory. The BJP now enters the UP cycle with momentum. Bihar allows the party to project a narrative of consistency, stability, and effective welfare delivery. Leaders say the focus now is “beneficiary saturation" — ensuring every potential voter category feels the impact of schemes like PM Awas, Ujjwala, and DBT transfers ahead of 2027.

A BJP MLA from Purvanchal said: “Bihar has boosted morale. UP will see the same welfare model taken to the booth level."

News politics Focus On Welfare, Women And EBCs: NDA’s Bihar Sweep Sets The Tone For UP 2027

Read More