Is Cuba next? Trump team debates oil cutoff to topple Havana's leadership

Fresh off a dramatic show of force in Venezuela, the Trump administration appears to be turning its gaze north — toward Havana.

According to a report by Politico, the administration of Donald Trump is weighing aggressive new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including the possibility of a total blockade on oil imports to the island.

No final decision has been taken, but the proposal is gaining traction among hardliners inside the administration. It is being backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime advocate of tough measures against the Cuban government, Politico reported, citing three people familiar with the internal discussions. Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants and has long supported hardline policies toward Havana.

If implemented, the move would mark a significant escalation in Trump’s effort to bring regional powers in line with Washington and underscore the administration’s broader ambition to assert dominance across the Western Hemisphere.

Earlier this month, Trump vowed to cut off oil and money flowing from Cuba’s longtime backer, Venezuela, following a January 3 US operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Analysts warned at the time that such a move could be catastrophic for Cuba’s fragile fuel supply, electrical grid and already strained economy.

Preventing all crude shipments to Cuba would go further than Trump’s recent declaration that the US would halt Cuban oil imports from Venezuela, which had been Havana’s primary supplier. Since those shipments dried up, Cuba has relied more heavily on Mexico, though officials say those supplies are neither free nor sufficient.

Inside the administration, there is debate over whether a full oil blockade is necessary. The loss of Venezuelan oil has already tightened the screws on Cuba’s struggling economy. Some officials have warned that a total cutoff could trigger a humanitarian crisis, a concern that has fueled internal pushback. Others see energy as leverage.

Cuba imports roughly 60 percent of its oil, according to the Energy Agency. Until recently, Venezuela supplied most of that crude. Mexico has stepped in as the main supplier, but analysts say those shipments are unlikely to ease Cuba’s worsening energy shortages.

Since the US operation that captured Maduro and effectively seized control of Venezuela’s oil flows, Trump officials have argued that Cuba’s economy is at its weakest point in decades — making it ripe for regime change.

Trump and Rubio have both voiced optimism that Cuba’s communist government will fall quickly now that Venezuelan support has been cut off. Trump has also suggested that Havana should strike a deal with Washington, ramping up pressure on a government the US has opposed for more than six decades.

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With inputs from agencies