Oil steadies after gain with OPEC+ and Russian supply in focus

Oil held advances on the possible postponement of OPEC+ supply increases and uncertainty around flows from Russia.

West Texas Intermediate traded below $72 a barrel after rising by 1.6% in the week so far, while Brent crude closed near $76. OPEC+ is weighing pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April in what would be the fourth delay if implemented.

Top officials from the US and Russia met in the Saudi capital Riyadh for a first round of talks over the war in Ukraine, but the exclusion of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy raised concerns in Europe and may slow an agreement. At the same time, the Group of Seven is considering tightening the oil price cap on Russian exports.

“The probability of a further postponement of OPEC+ output restoration may be a reason” for price support, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Mizuho Bank Ltd. “The bigger picture for prices though will be contingent on non-OPEC ramp-up in production and eventual pressures on OPEC+ to phase-in restoration.”

Meanwhile, flows from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea could decline 30% during the months of repairs on a key Russian pumping station targeted by Ukrainian drones.

Crude has traded in a relatively narrow range of about $5 a barrel this month, with a gauge of implied volatilty declining to around the lowest since July. That followed a tumultuous start to the year that saw futures rise on cold weather and a tightening of sanctions, and then fall as US President Donald Trump’s tariff actions spooked markets.

Trump said he would likely impose duties on automobile, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an official announcement coming as soon as April 2. The US leader previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to take effect in March.

Elsewhere, President Trump said Chevron Corp.’s ability to continue exporting crude from Venezuela is under review, underscoring continued tensions between the nations that could spill over to energy.

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