Reform UK can win scores of Labour seats in England and Wales, says study

Labour faces losing scores of seats to Reform UK across England and Wales as a widening section of ­voters lose faith in the mainstream parties, according to a new analysis seen by the Observer.

With senior figures in the Labour party now privately talking about a “change of era” in which more ­moderate voters are turning to Nigel Farage’s party, new research on Reform’s influence suggests it will take far more seats from Labour than from the Conservatives on ­current trends.

Reform would win 76 seats if an election were held now, according to a constituency-by-constituency model. Of those, 60 would be won from Labour, including seats across the “red wall”, as well as in Wales and across the south of England.

However, the analysis also reveals that even a relatively small further swing towards Reform from Labour could see the party pick up another 76 Labour-held seats.

The narrow Labour lead in many seats means it is susceptible in the event of a high turnout among Reform voters, a surge in Reform’s support, or a drop in Labour turnout.

The huge study, commissioned by the Hope Not Hate campaign group, has been carried out by the Focaldata polling company using a mega-poll, or MRP, made up of almost 18,000 voters.

Its analysis of almost 4,000 ­voters currently minded to back Reform found that one in five were “moderate, interventionist” voters who were unlike those who had backed Farage at the last election or supported Ukip or the Brexit party in the past.

They were quite positive about immigration and in favour of a strong state, but disillusioned with the ­ability of the main parties to deliver.

The analysis comes with some of the most senior figures in the Labour party focused on the threat posed by Reform, which many see as the result of a collapse in the belief that the mainstream parties are able to improve the lives of ordinary people.

While Reform’s rise hit the Tories the most at the last election, many believe there is now a real threat to Keir Starmer’s party.

“At the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for Reform were not considering Labour,” said a senior Labour source. “That won’t be true now, because we’re in government and people are looking for change. The number of people that are feeling unsure about the future is quite big. It’s not just on the fringes of the electoral system.

“It’s not just turbulence. It is a change of era. People are angrier. There is a lot more voter fluidity. The people who are driving the change aren’t the political forces at the top. They are the ordinary people at the bottom – and they want delivery. We’ve got to be on their side and demonstrate that the government can make a difference in their lives.”

The Focaldata study found that with just a 3% swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives, Reform could be on 169 seats. It is currently picking up 12% of those who voted for the Conservatives at the last election and 7% of those who backed Labour.

However, Reform is making significantly more inroads in certain seats. It is picking up between 10% and 15% of those who voted Labour at the last election in seats with large white working-class populations.

Defections to Reform are much lower in Labour’s more diverse ­metropolitan seats.

The poll suggests a new era of four-party politics. As well as 266 seats where there is less than 6% between the top two parties, there are also 60 three-way marginals and one four-way marginal.

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Nick Lowles, chief executive of Hope Not Hate, who analysed the findings, said that there was a clear and present threat to Labour should it fail to deliver the improvements to living standards and public services that Starmer has promised.

“The polling should be a wake-up call for everyone,” he said. “Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain. The idea that Reform hurts the Conservatives more than Labour is plainly nonsense. As our polling graphically shows, the vast majority of seats Reform would win if there was an election today are from Labour, as are most of the seats they would take on a swing of 3% or less.

“Strong anti-immigration views were dominant among those who voted Reform in the 2024 general election, but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views.

“This includes a sizeable group of voters who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.”

Figures in Downing Street are open about the challenge of winning the trust of the public after many years in which public services have been run down and political promises broken.

However, one said that Starmer and his ministers were now “prepared to pick fights” over issues such as housebuilding that demonstrated he was fighting the public’s corner.

“We’ve got to make sure that we are clear about the choices that we’re making and about whose side we’re on,” said one.

The breakdown of Reform voters found that they were a coalition of newer, more moderate voters and “radical young men” inspired by the likes of Elon Musk, as well as older groups of Conservative and working-class voters opposed to immigration.

“There is no single way to fight Reform,” said Lowles. “There are different types of Reform voters and each needs a different approach. At the same time, we need to hold Reform accountable to greater scrutiny for its increasingly divergent and contradictory positions.

“Reform gets away with being able to have a coalition of libertarian free marketeers alongside those who want greater state intervention and ownership of key industries. Likewise, Farage is clearly trying to present a more moderate image, but those around him hold really hardline and extreme views.”