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HomeMarket NewsThe best Trump trade in 2025 is not Tesla or Bitcoin
Gold has emerged as the best "Trump Trade" since his return to the White House, with prices reaching an all-time high in February 2025. The US has seen a significant shift in gold imports, with Swiss data showing a sharp rise in exports following Trump's victory and tariff discussions.
By Manisha Gupta February 18, 2025, 5:18:56 PM IST (Published)
While Tesla and Bitcoin have been the most talked-about beneficiaries of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, those who invested in gold have seen even more significant gains. Gold is being hailed as the best "Trump trade" since his election, with prices surging to an all-time high of $2,940 an ounce in February.
The precious metal has surged by 11% in 2025, following an impressive 28% gain in 2024.
Switzerland is the world’s largest bullion refining centre, and the UK is home to the world’s largest Over-The-Counter (OTC) gold trading hub. Both of these centres have seen a major shift of gold to the US since December 2024.
Swiss Customs data reveals an unusual surge in US imports of gold in December 2024 compared to November 2024, far outpacing the imports of the previous year. Meanwhile, major consumers like India and China saw a decline.
Swiss Gold Exports (in Kgs)
| Trade | Dec 2023 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 |
| US | 3,314 | 5,826 | 64,247 |
| China | 33,125 | 15,704 | 4,000 |
| India | 8,106 | 52,687 | 8,975 |
The gold rush to the US began following Donald Trump's declaration as the winner of the presidential race on November 5, 2024. Swiss exports of gold to the US soared to their highest levels since March 2022, according to Swiss Customs data.
As Trump officially took office on January 20, 2025, and started signing the tariff papers, gold imports into the US doubled from 532 tons to 1,000 tons by the end of January. By February 14, this figure had climbed to 1,164 tons.
COMEX Gold Stocks (in Tons): Gold Stock Build-Up
| Date | Gold Stock (Tons) |
| Nov 5 | 532.91 |
| Dec 31 | 681.44 |
| Jan 31 | 1,004.34 |
| Feb 7 | 1,103.94 |
| Feb 10 | 1,123.11 |
| Feb 12 | 1,152.56 |
| Feb 14 | 1,164.77 |
Why the gold shift to the US?
The US has imposed or threatened to impose trade tariffs on various countries and commodities, including reciprocal tariffs. These potential tariffs could ignite a global trade war, leading to inflation and weakening economic growth, which in turn has prompted a surge in safe-haven buying of gold.
As the US discussed tariffs on Europe, gold prices began to firm, prompting buyers to shift from futures trades to physical holdings in these uncertain times.
Major banks like HSBC and JP Morgan have reportedly moved gold to the US to cover losses on short futures positions and take advantage of the price gap between trading hubs, as gold prices are at a premium in the US due to the associated risk premium.
Reports suggest that commercial flights are being used to ferry gold into the US for delivery on exchanges, with February’s COMEX expiry set to be a key moment to watch for both prices and physical deliveries.
