1 month ago
It has been a volatile week for the Nifty, ending Friday's trading session on a negative note. The market reversed last week's gains, falling nearly 1% this week amid a news-heavy environment influenced by geopolitical cues. Except for IT and PSU Banks, all sectoral indices posted losses this week.
The week began cautiously due to concerns ahead of the 2024 US elections, followed by a brief mid-week recovery after the results. However, the gains could not hold, leading the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, to close lower at 24,148 and 79,486, respectively.
Shares of Trent Ltd., the Tata Group stock, extended losses for the fifth consecutive session, ending as top loser on the Nifty 50 index. The stock is down 25% from its peak of ₹8,345. The sharp fall in the stock price was seen after its September quarter results, which were marginally short of elevated expectations.
Going ahead, the Street will now focus on domestic factors including the key macroeconomic data, foreign fund flows and the final phase of the Q2 earnings season. India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
On the global front, the US inflation report on November 13 will be critical, as it may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance. Additionally, investors will track developments in China’s economic stimulus package.
Earnings reactions will be seen from shares of Tata Motors Ltd., Life Insurance Corporation of Inda, among others that reported results after market hours on Friday.
ONGC, Britannia Industries, Hindalco Industries, Bajaj Consumer Care, Balrampur Chini Mills, Bank Of India, BEML, BLS Services, Blue Dart Express, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals, Godfrey Phillips India, and Jubilant FoodWorks will be reporting results on November 11.
FII and DII data
Foreign institutions continued to remain net sellers in the cash market on Friday, while domestic institutions were net buyers yet again.
VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial attributed the weakness in the Indian market to the relentless selling by FIIs. After the massive FII selling of ₹1.13 lakh crore in October, FIIs have so far, in November, sold equity for ₹19,849 crore in the cash market.
"The rationale for the FII selling is, the elevated valuations in India, which appear conspicuous in the context of the earnings deceleration evident in the Q2 numbers," he said, adding that the FII selling trend is likely to continue in the near-term till data indicate the possibility of a trend reversal.
What are experts saying?
Markets are expected to remain sideways on the back of mixed global factors and subdued quarterly results.
However, there could be stock specific action on account the last leg of second-quarter earnings to be announced next week, according to Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.
What do the Nifty 50 charts suggest?
The Nifty remains in a consolidation range between 24,000-24,500, with mixed signals indicating that this phase may continue.
A clear breakout above the 24,500 level could drive the index toward 24,800, whereas a breakdown might increase pressure, potentially pushing it down to the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) near 23,500, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research at Religare Broking.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that a long negative candle was formed on the daily chart after the upside bounce of the last two sessions. The crucial overhead resistance of 24,500 remained intact and the market was not able to sustain above the resistance area.
"Though, technically this candle pattern not showing any signs of bigger decline from here, but some more consolidation or minor dip is expected towards 23,800 or slightly lows," Shetti said.
The short-term trend remains dicey with short-term volatility in the market. Until Nifty surpasses above 24,500 levels, meaningful upside rally is not expected. At the lows, the Nifty could find support at around 23,800 levels.
Rupak De of LKP Securities expects 24,000 level to serve as strong support for the index. If it holds above this level, Nifty bulls may still have an opportunity to regain momentum. However, a break below 24,000 could further weaken the market.
"The RSI indicator remains in a positive crossover, indicating that short-term momentum is likely to stay strong. In the near term, the index may recover toward 24,500, but a dip below 24,000 could lead to a market correction," De said.
What do the Nifty Bank charts suggest?
The Nifty Bank index tumbled 355 points to settled at 51,561 on Friday.
According to Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart, Bank Nifty is relatively stronger but is trading within a range. The 52,500 level acts as a significant resistance, while the 51,000-50,500 zone provides key support.
Meena said that a decisive break above 52,500 could trigger a short-covering rally, with potential targets at 53,300 and 54,000. On the downside, the 200-DMA at 49,500 serves as an important support.
Palka Arora Chopra of Master Capital Services said that Bank Nifty ended the week flat, facing strong resistance in the 52,500-52,600 range. The index is trading within a 2,000-point range, with buying seen around 50,500 and selling at 52,500. It’s now expected to move toward the lower end of this range.
"Immediate resistance is at 51,800, which could push the index back up to 52,500. On the downside, if Bank Nifty breaks below 51,300, it may fall further to 50,800. It gave closing below the 21-day EMA, a 'sell on rise' approach is advised for the coming week to stay aligned with the current trend," the analyst added.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Nifty 50's November futures shed 1.2% or 1.4 lakh shares in Open Interest on Friday. They are currently trading at a premium of 71.65 points from 101.15 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's November futures added 2.7% or 69,525 shares in Open Interest on Friday. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 0.91 from 0.9 earlier.
Manappuram Finance has entered the F&O ban, along with Aditya Birla Fashion and Granules India that continue to remain in the ban period.
Nifty 50 on the Call side for November 14 expiry:
On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 24,200 and 24,800 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's weekly expiry.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 24,800 | 20.1 Lakh Added | 6.25 |
| 24,200 | 13.5 Lakh Added | 123.6 |
| 24,600 | 11.6 Lakh Added | 17.95 |
| 24,450 | 10.3 Lakh Added | 40.4 |
Nifty 50 on the Put side for November 14 expiry:
On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes of 23,500 and 24,100 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's expiry, along with the 23,000 strike, while the 24,300 strike has seen shedding in Open Interest.
| Strike | OI Change | Premium |
| 23,000 | 16.1 Lakh Added | 4.85 |
| 24,100 | 11.7 Lakh Added | 123.85 |
| 23,500 | 10.3 Lakh Added | 14.15 |
| 24,300 | 1.6 Lakh Shed | 228.35 |
Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| JSW Steel | 0.49% | 7.69% |
| Britannia | 0.78% | 6.88% |
| Metropolis | 0.39% | 4.48% |
| Crompton | 1.68% | 2.59% |
| Laurus Labs | 0.33% | 1.56% |
Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning an increase in Open Interest but a decline in price:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Aarti Industries | -7.93% | 21.49% |
| Aurobindo Pharma | -1.96% | 10.91% |
| Trent | -3.58% | 9.34% |
| MRF | -1.36% | 6.36% |
| ICICI Bank | -1.62% | 6.17% |
Short covering was seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Page Industries | 6.80% | -34.59% |
| Abbott India | 0.96% | -17.70% |
| Cummins India | 2.16% | -12.06% |
| Granules | 1.49% | -5.37% |
| Indian Hotels | 6.79% | -5.34% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Friday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Apollo Hospitals | -0.40% | -11.05% |
| Aditya Birla Fashion | -0.18% | -8.35% |
| Coromandel | -1.51% | -5.24% |
| Lupin | -0.70% | -5.15% |
| Alkem Labs | -0.40% | -4.78% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Monday's trading session:
Tata Motors | Mutued domestic demand and production constraints at JLR weigh on results. Net profit fell 11.2% from last year to ₹3,343 crore. Revenue down 3.8% to ₹1.01 lakh crore. EBITDA down 12% to ₹12,159 crore. EBITDA margin down to 12% from 13.1% last year. JLR profitability impacted by temporary aluminium supply constraint and hold placed on 6,029 vehicles for additional QC checks. JLR expects production and wholesale volumes to pick up strongly in Q2. Hold on to FY25 guidance of revenue of £30 million in revenue and margin of around 8.5%.
Asian Paints | Domestic volumes decline by 0.5% compared to estimates of 6-8% growth. Revenue, EBITDA, margin, net profit, all of them below expectations from a CNBC-TV18 poll. Weak consumer sentiment, persistent rains and floods in some parts of the country impacted results. Revenue affected by price cuts taken last year, shift in mix and increased rebates. Operating margins impacted by higher material prices and increased sales expenses. ₹124 Crore impairment of investment value in White Teak Co and ₹56 crore ForEx loss in Ethiopia also impacted profit. Demand conditions remain challenging. Margins to recover due to expected softening in material prices & price increases taken.
Ola Electric | Net loss of ₹495 crore from loss of ₹524 crore last year. Revenue up 39% to ₹1,214 crore from ₹973 crore last year. EBITDA loss of ₹349 crore from loss of ₹435 crore last year.
LIC | New business premium up 20% to ₹60,043 crore, higher than estimates of ₹58,109 crore. Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) up 26% to ₹16,465 crore compared to estimates of ₹15,885 crore. Retail APE up 31% to ₹11,416 crore, higher than estimates of ₹9,993 crore. VNB up 47% at ₹2,941 crore, higher than estimates of ₹2,313 crore. VNB Margin at 18%, higher than estimates of 14.56%. Net profit down 4% to ₹7,621 crore.
Divi's Laboratories | Revenue up 22.5% to ₹2,338 crore. Net profit up 47% to ₹510 crore. EBITDA up 50% to ₹716 crore. EBITDA margin at 30.6% from 25.1% last year. Double-digit revenue growth, driven by increased demand in custom synthesis and emerging generic. Healthy CS sales and marginal decline in other expenses aided margins. Higher capex of ₹1,600 crore expected in FY25. Kakinada project is progressing, with production expected to start in December 2024.
Aarti Industries | Net profit down 43% to ₹52 crore from ₹91 crore last year. Revenue up 12% to ₹1,628 crore from ₹1,454 crore last year. EBITDA down 15.5% year-on-year to ₹197 crore. EBITDA margin at 12.1% from 16% last year.
Metropolis | Net profit up 31% to ₹47 crore. Revenue up 11.5% to ₹349 crore. EBITDA up 12.3% to ₹88.5 crore. EBITDA margin at 25.4% from 25.2% last year. Revenue growth led by patient and test volumes. B2C revenue growth of 21% led by growth in Maharashtra, Specialty and TruHealth.
Fortis Healthcare | Net profit up 1.6% to ₹176.5 crore. Revenue up 12.3% to ₹1,988.4 crore. EBITDA up 31.7% to ₹435 crore. EBITDA margin at 21.9% from 18.7% last year.
JSW Steel | Declared preferred bidder in auction of Banai & Bhalumuda coal block in Mand-Raigarh.
Biocon | USFDA classifies Park Site unit in Bengaluru, India as Voluntary Action Initiated (VAI). The facility was inspected between July 15-16, 2024.
GR Infra | Declared Lowest Bidder For BSNL’s Bharat Net Phase 3 project worth `867.54 Crore.
ITI | Emerges lowest bidder for three packages for Bharat Net Phase-3 project worth ₹4,599 crore.
