Why China wants control over a vital Indian resource

UPDATED: Jan 7, 2025 19:01 IST

India and China, already at odds over various geopolitical and territorial issues, could soon face a new frontier of conflict—water.

A massive $137 billion dam that China plans to construct on the Brahmaputra River has sparked fresh concerns in India, highlighting a long-standing fear of water being weaponised.

The Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet, controlled by China, before entering India through Arunachal Pradesh and flowing into Bangladesh. Millions in India’s northeastern regions depend on the river for drinking water, agriculture, fishing, and more. However, the river’s flow gives China a strategic upper hand. With its control over the river’s origin, China can manipulate water flow, impacting downstream countries like India.

China’s new dam, planned for the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra in Tibet, is set to be the world’s largest and most expensive infrastructure project. It is expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, triple the output of the Three Gorges Dam—currently the largest dam in the world. While this promises significant benefits for China, it raises alarm in India due to the potential for water flow manipulation.

China’s history with the Mekong River provides a cautionary tale. In 2019 and 2020, Beijing restricted water flow to Southeast Asian nations like Thailand and Vietnam, causing droughts, devastating fisheries, and sparking international criticism. This precedent fuels fears that China could employ similar tactics with the Brahmaputra.

India has reason to worry about both environmental and geopolitical consequences. Chinese dam-building could disrupt the Brahmaputra’s ecosystem, possibly triggering earthquakes or altering water flow. Furthermore, during past geopolitical tensions like the 2017 Doklam standoff, China withheld critical hydrological data, illustrating how water can become a geopolitical tool.

Experts argue that climate change exacerbates the issue, with both India and China facing water shortages. While some suggest that diverting the Brahmaputra’s waters within China would be prohibitively expensive and complex, others caution that even "run-of-the-river" dams can store significant amounts of water and disrupt downstream ecosystems.

India has consistently called for transparency in China’s hydroelectric projects and respect for its interests. However, efforts to establish a transboundary water-sharing agreement have made little progress. Some Indian officials have proposed building dams in Arunachal Pradesh to assert territorial claims, but such measures don’t address the larger strategic imbalance.

Military options appear unlikely, leaving diplomacy as India’s best course of action. Experts like Dr. Mirza Zulfiqar Rahman advocate for India to lead a coalition of regional countries to promote cooperative management of shared water resources. This would mark a shift from viewing water as a contested resource to treating it as a shared necessity,

China’s dam-building efforts threaten to escalate tensions in an already fragile region. Beyond jeopardizing India’s water security, these projects could harm the region’s ecology and raise the specter of a full-blown conflict. To prevent this, India must take the lead in fostering regional cooperation and sustainable water management.

As a rising global power, India’s ability to navigate these challenges and build alliances will be critical. The stakes are high, and the need for a peaceful, cooperative solution has never been greater.

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