Likely espionage: Noble institute flags leak before Maria Machado prize reveal

A potential leak ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is "highly likely" linked to espionage, the Nobel Institute suggested in an interview with Norway's TV2, according to news agency AFP.

The award was officially announced on Friday around 10 am local time. Yet unusual betting activity had already begun late Thursday on Polymarket, a popular online prediction market. Wagers on Machado surged, pushing her odds of winning to over 73 per cent shortly after midnight.

The sudden spike sparked suspicion. No media outlets or experts had listed Machado among frontrunners prior to the announcement, raising questions about whether confidential information had been leaked.

For a brief 45 minutes, the odds on Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Aleksei A Navalny, rose slightly, only for Machado's chances to climb again after 3 am and remain high until the official announcement, AFP reported.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, told TV2, "Highly likely it's espionage. The institute would investigate the unusual activity and, where necessary, we will further tighten security".

Harpviken clarified that espionage could create the impression of an insider leak, though he stressed that such deliberate leaks were unlikely. "It's too certain to say for sure, but it's no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage," he said.

Despite these concerns, Nobel Committee chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes dismissed the possibility of an internal breach.

"I don't think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can't imagine that's the case," Frydnes told NTB news agency.

Machado, who was barred from running in the country's 2024 presidential race, received the Nobel Peace Prize "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy".

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's months-long campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize hit a dead end after the award went to Machado. The United States President had hoped to join the ranks of Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, citing his claim of having ended "eight wars".

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